2016年考研英语阅读材料:World economy

　　A FINANCIAL crash in Russia; falling oil prices and a strong dollar; a new gold rush in Silicon Valley and a resurgent American economy; weakness in Germany and Japan; tumbling currencies in emerging markets from Brazil to Indonesia; an embattled Democrat in the White House. Is that a forecast of the world in 2015 or a portrait of the late 1990s?

　　Recent economic history has been so dominated by the credit crunch of 2008-09 that it is easy to forget what happened in the decades before. But looking back 15 years or so is instructive—in terms of both what to do and what to avoid.

　　Then, as now, the United States was in the vanguard of a disruptive digital revolution. The advent of the internet spawned a burst of innovation and euphoria about America's prospects. By 1999 GDP was rising by more than 4% a year, almost twice the rich-country average. Unemployment fell to 4%, a 30-year low. Foreign investors piled in, boosting both the dollar and share prices. The S&P 500 index rose to almost 30 times earnings; tech stocks went wild.

　　The optimism in America stood in stark contrast to gloom elsewhere, as it does today. Japan's economy had slipped into deflation in 1997. Germany was “the sick man of Europe”, its firms held back by rigid labour markets and other high costs. Emerging markets, having soared ahead, were in crisis: between 1997 and 1999 countries from Thailand to Brazil saw their currencies crash as foreign capital fled and dollar-denominated debts proved unpayable.

　　Eventually, America ran into trouble too. The tech-stock bubble burst in early 2000, prompting a broader share price slump. Business investment, particularly in technology, sank; and as share prices fell, consumers cut back. By early 2001 America, along with most of the rich world, had slipped into recession, albeit a mild one.

　　Inevitably the parallels are not perfect. The biggest difference is China, a bit-part player in 1999 and now the world's second-biggest economy, contributing disproportionately to global growth. But there are three trends at work that destabilised the world economy then and could do the same now.

　　The first is the gap between America, where growth is accelerating, and almost everywhere else, where it is slowing. In the late 1990s Larry Summers, then the US deputy treasury secretary, warned that the world economy was “flying on one engine”. For 2015 The Economist's panel of forecasters expects 3% growth in America, #pared with 1.1% in Japan and the euro area. China's growth rate may fall to around 7%.

　　参考译文:

　　俄罗斯发生了金融危机;油价和强势美元下跌;硅谷出现了新的淘金热，并且美国实现经济复苏;德国和日本则经济疲软;从巴西到印度尼西亚的新兴市场货币呈动荡;民主党在白宫四面楚歌。那是对2015年世界的预测或上世纪90年代末的景象描绘?

　　近期的经济已经由2008-09年的信贷紧缩所主导，很容易忘记在十年前所发生的事情。但回过头来看15年前的经济会发现有所启发—反观两者可以知道该做之事以及应避免什么问题。

　　当时和现在一样，美国当年是颠覆性的数字革命的先锋。互联网的出现催生了一阵对美国的前景创新和兴高采烈的乐观情绪。到1999年为止，美国国内生产总值每年增长率超过4%，几乎两倍于富裕国家的平均水平。美国失业率下降至4%，为30年最低点。外国投资者主要集中于提升美元和股票价格。标准普尔500指数升至市盈率的近30倍;科技股疯狂飙升。

　　正如现今一样，在美国的乐观情绪和其他地方的悲观状态形成鲜明对比。日本经济已经在1997年陷入通货紧缩。德国是那时的“欧洲病夫”，德国公司由劳动力市场僵化以及其他高成本阻碍了经济。已经提前高速发展的新兴市场也陷入危机：1997年至1999年之间，从泰国到巴西等国家货币出现崩溃，并伴随着外资外泄，而且以美元计价的债务被证明是无法偿还的。

　　最终，美国也遇到了麻烦。早在2000年科技股泡沫破灭，促使更广泛的股价暴跌。商业投资，尤其是在技术方面的投资也在下降;而且随着股票价格下跌，消费者也在减少。到2001年初，美国与大多数发达国家一样，已经陷入经济衰退，尽管是温和的下降。

　　不可避免的相似之处并不全然完美。最大的区别就是中国，一个在1999年经济中扮演跑龙套的配角的中国，目前已经是世界上第二大经济体，对全球经济增长作出巨大贡献。但也有使得当时世界经济不稳定三个趋势，也会对现在经济产生影响。

　　第一个趋势是美国，经济增长加快，而几乎其他任何地方经济正出现放缓。在20世纪90年代后期美国财政部副部长拉里·萨默斯警告说，世界经济是“依靠单台引擎在飞驰”。《经济学家》预测专家对于2015年进行预测：美国经济增长3%，在日本和欧元区为1.1%。中国的经济增长速度可能回落至7%左右。